Method and sources – where the figures come from, and how they are combined

This calculator is not a black box. Every figure it shows comes out of an explicit calculation applied to public data you can go and check yourself. Here is which data, and what we do with it.

Production

The starting point is the country's specific yield: what one kilowatt-peak of panels produces in a year, tilted and oriented at best, in kWh/kWp/year. The reference values come from PVGIS, the European Commission's tool, cross-checked against the Global Solar Atlas.

If you enter an address, the calculator queries two open climate databases — Open-Meteo's ERA5 archive, with NASA POWER climatology as a fallback — to retrieve the irradiation actually measured at that point, and replaces the national average with that local value. This is why the same house does not give the same result in Inverness and in Plymouth.

Orientation and tilt then apply a factor running from 0.45 (due north, steep pitch) to 1.00 (due south, optimal pitch). That optimal pitch is calculated from your latitude, not fixed once and for all.

Self-consumption

Producing is not the same as consuming. The share of your output that you use on site — the self-consumption rate — depends on the ratio between what you produce and what you consume, and on the time of day when you consume it.

The calculator applies k ÷ (k + production ÷ consumption), with k at 0.80 if you consume mostly during the day, 0.45 for a spread-out profile, 0.28 in the evening and at night. It is a classic form, fitted to residential load curves: the larger the system is against the need, the more the directly consumed share collapses. That is exactly why oversizing without a battery earns almost nothing.

With a battery, a second pass recovers the surplus from the sunny hours, up to the installed capacity and the evening demand.

Costs

An installation does not cost in proportion to its size: the fixed costs — travel, scaffolding, inverter, grid connection, surveys — are diluted as it grows. The calculator starts from a reference price in €/kWp for each country, then applies a tapering coefficient: 1.35 below 3 kWp, 1.15 from 3 to 6, 1.00 from 6 to 10, 0.80 from 10 to 50, then 0.65 and 0.55 above that.

The mounting method and the roof covering adjust the result: fitting onto tiles costs more than onto steel sheet, and a ballasted mount on a flat roof more than a ground mount. If you fit the system yourself, only the hardware is counted, plus 4% for small supplies.

The reference prices for the six documented countries are aligned with the sources listed below. For the other countries they are orders of magnitude, to be confirmed by a local quote.

The price of electricity and the value of exported power

The price per kilowatt-hour is the Eurostat one, series nrg_pc_204, band DC households (2,500 to 4,999 kWh a year), all taxes included, second half of 2025. It is the only series that is genuinely comparable from one country to another.

The value of the surplus exported to the grid is expressed as a share of that retail price, and it moves fast. In June 2026 France went from a self-consumption bonus and a comfortable feed-in tariff to a single rate of 1.1 euro cents per kWh. The Netherlands lose salderen on 1st January 2027. The values used target the regime that will apply to a system commissioned now, over its lifetime — not the one that is being phased out.

Payback

The payback time is the number of years after which the cumulative savings cover the investment. The internal rate of return is calculated over 25 years, with module degradation of 0.5% a year and an electricity price rise of 2% a year.

No public subsidy enters the calculation: they change too often and depend too much on your situation. The country pages describe them one by one. The figure shown is therefore a floor, which any support you are entitled to can only improve.

What this calculator does not do

  • It does not model shading: a tree, a chimney or a neighbouring building can take 5 to 30% off the output.
  • It says nothing about the condition of your roof or its ability to carry the load.
  • It includes no subsidy, nor any reduced VAT rate you might qualify for.
  • It replaces neither a site survey nor a signed quote. It is an order of magnitude, enough to tell whether the project is worth digging into and to keep you from facing a salesperson unarmed.

Sources

All the data below is public and verifiable. The date shown is that of the version used.

  • PVGIS 5.3 — Commission européenne, Centre commun de recherche. Productible de référence par pays.
    re.jrc.ec.europa.eu
  • Global Solar Atlas — Banque mondiale / Solargis, données v2.2 jusqu'à 2025. Recoupement du productible.
    globalsolaratlas.info
  • Open-Meteo Archive (ERA5) — Irradiation mesurée au point saisi, appel en direct depuis votre navigateur.
    open-meteo.com
  • NASA POWER — Climatologie mensuelle de secours quand ERA5 ne répond pas.
    power.larc.nasa.gov
  • Eurostat nrg_pc_204 — Prix de l'électricité, ménages bande DC (2 500–4 999 kWh/an), toutes taxes comprises, 2e semestre 2025.
    ec.europa.eu/eurostat
  • IEA-PVPS — National Survey Reports, prix des installations résidentielles par pays.
    iea-pvps.org
  • NREL — « Photovoltaic Shading Testbed for Module-Level Power Electronics », 2012 : gain annuel des micro-onduleurs sous ombre légère, moyenne et forte, mesuré sur une soixantaine de toits.
    docs.nrel.gov
  • Bruxelles Environnement — « Le photovoltaïque, module 4 : facteurs influençant la production » : mécanisme des cellules en série, exemple chiffré d'une cheminée, poids des ombres d'hiver, espacement des rangées.
    environnement.brussels
  • Fraunhofer ISE — « Aktuelle Fakten zur Photovoltaik in Deutschland », version du 20 août 2026.
    ise.fraunhofer.de
  • Sources nationales — CRE et EDF OA (France), Bundesnetzagentur et BDEW (Allemagne), ARERA et GSE (Italie), IDAE et Red Eléctrica (Espagne), ACM et Milieu Centraal (Pays-Bas), CWaPE, Fluvius et Brugel (Belgique). Détail et dates sur chaque page pays.

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